The Future of US‐Afghanistan Relationship: Mohd Daud Sotanzooi Talks
Mohammad Daud Sotanzooi, an Afghan MP from Ghazni Province, is an outspoken critic of the Karzai administration and one of Afghans leading lawmakers in the economic sphere. Educated In the United States, Mr. Soltanzooi where he studied Aviation and Management, he later became a pilot with Afghanistan’s Ariana Airlines. After the Soviets invaded, he left Afghanistan for Saudi Arabia where he worked in the aviation sector, and eventually immigrated to the United States where he became a manager for United Airlines. He began his political activism when he was a teenager. At age fifteen he was arrested for his political activities during the decade of democracy in Afghanistan that preceded the communist takeover of the country. He participated in the parallel Bonn conference to organize civil society in December 2001 and then in the Loya Jirga in 2002 that formed the Transitional Administration. Kabul Direct interviewed Mr. Soltanzooi at his residence in western Kabul on August 27.
Kabul Direct: Recently, there have been rumors of troubled relations between President Karzai and the United States Special Envoy Richard Holbrooke resulting from the fraud allegations in the recent elections. How do you think this will impact US- Afghan relationship over the next five years?
Soltanzooi: Mr. Karzai maintained good relations with the United States throughout the Bush administration. In fact, it was the US that helped install him in power. Thus, the US had a vested interest in seeing him succeed. But eventually the US began to understand that it was the Karzai administration’s mismanagement of Afghanistan that was destroying the opportunities they were trying to create for the country. Thanks to President Karzai’s mismanagement, much of the goodwill the US built up in Afghanistan during the Jihad against the Soviets was depleted.
After US officials concluded that many of Afghanistan’s problems were traceable to President Karzai’s weak leadership, they grew impatient with him. President Karzai, however, was resistant. He made no secret of the fact that he detested the American interference in his regime.
But now, the new Obama administration is under pressure to resolve the situation. The American public, just like the citizens of the other countries whose militaries are serving in Afghanistan, is growing increasingly impatient. They are asking why they are here for so long. And because people understand that wars cannot be won by military force alone, there is pressure to address all the nonmilitary issues too.
I do not want to ignore the achievements of the past five years – as there have been achievements – but if we compare what was achieved to all the money and effort that was spent, the achievements seem sparse, and in many instances, non- sustainable. Things have improved, but not to the extent that there has been a real change in the lives of ordinary Afghans. Most Afghans, unfortunately, still live in misery.
So this is no doubt why there might have been some confrontational meetings with President Karzai lately.
Kabul Direct: If President Karzai is determined to be the winner, do you think relations between the two countries will continue to be tense for quite some time?
Soltanzooi: Over the past couple of years, President Karzai has built relationships with countries like China, India, Iran, and Russia.
Yet, these regional relationships he has developed do not mean that he is in any kind of position to be confrontational with the United States. The US is still Afghanistan’s most important provider of military and economic support.
President Karzai is not in any position to be confrontational with any country in fact. His being confrontational will only make life even more difficult for the vast majority of Afghans. Thus he would be well advised to choose other instruments to carry out his political program. But nobody can tell him this, as no doubt this would only provoke more confrontation. So this is something Preisdent Karzai must himself realize.
Kabul Direct: During his campaign, President Karzai stressed that he wanted Afghanistan to pursue a more independent course, to steer away from the expectations of the international community, the same community that, as you point out, put him in power in the first place. So if, in fact, he wins the office this time, do you think that this will boost his confidence and make him even more resistant to foreign interference?
Soltanzooi: Well, he might well become even more confrontational, how long can he stay in power if the US is not there to keep him in power? Would he last even one hour?
President Karzai clearly recognizes how well the idea of being independent plays in the minds of the Afghan public. And naturally, he wants to pose as the leader who can bring this about. But independence is not going to come as a result of his personal charisma. It will come as the result of good leadership. The people of Afghanistan no longer listen to what he says, they are waiting to see what he does.
Kabul Direct: Let’s talk about Afghanistan’s relationship with its neighbors. How do you assess our relations with the other countries in the region? Are we effectively managing these relationships?
Soltanzooi: Our foreign policies with respect to our neighbors not clear nor is it understood.
It is obviously in the national interest of any nation to enjoy good relations with the neighbors. All neighborhoods are well served by being inhabited by friendly parties. But this cannot happen unless all of the neighbors recognize each other sovereignty and national interests.
But we have yet to clearly define our national interests. We have failed to articulate, for example, that the presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan is to serve Afghanistan’s national interests, not to encroach upon the interests or sovereignty of our neighbors, for example, Iran.
We need to make clear to other neighbors, Pakistan, for example, that the foreign troops are here in Afghanistan in the first place only because of what Pakistan has done to interfere in Afghanistan.
Kabul Direct: How do we convince countries like Iran and Pakistan that what is going on in Afghanistan is good for Afghanistan, and by extension, therefore good for them as well?
Soltanzooi: We need to provide them with an updated evaluation of the situation, here and in the world. The globe has become very small at this point. What happens here has far-reaching consequences. Everyone is now very inter-connected. With respect to the economy, Afghanistan sits at the crossroads of Central and South Asia and the Middle East. If Afghanistan becomes stable, everyone in the region stands to benefit from Pakistan, to Iran, to India. We should bear this in mind and construct our foreign policy with an eye toward the benefits that would accrue were we all to cooperate with respect to trade.
We have to stop looking at each other as part of each other’s strategic depth. Pakistan should not see Afghanistan as a basing opportunity from which it can attack India, but should see us – and India – as potential trading partners. There is nothing to stop us from creating a regional economic union where we could all prosper.
Kabul Direct: Regarding this idea of using other nations to add strategic depth, many analysts now seem to believe that Pakistan has ceased seeing Afghanistan this way. But from what you have just said, I gather you are not among them.
Soltanzooi: It is for many reasons that I believe Pakistan does still look at Afghanistan as part of its strategic depth. In both the Pakistani army and the ISI, this is still very much the thinking. Now how to get around this type of thinking? We need to convince them that a weak, radicalized Afghanistan will eventually translate into a weak and radicalized Pakistan. Pakistan needs to realize that they will not be unaffected by any problems they create here.
Kabul Direct: Let’s talk about US- Afghan relations for a moment. Some analysts have suggested that the new surge in troop levels is really phase one of the Obama Administration’s exit plan. But that the Taliban is proving to be a more recalcitrant enemy than they expected. Some analysts are now suggesting that Afghanistan may even be on the brink of failure. My question is how do you see the current situation? Do you think we are seeing the US exit strategy unfold, and if so, how do you think this bodes for Afghanistan’s future?
Soltanzooi: First, I think that we are already failing as a state. We do not have an economy that can sustain us. We don’t have a security force that, on its own, can defend us. We don’t have a government that the people feel represents them, regardless of whether our leaders were elected or not. Too many of our people are still illiterate and our largest industry is still the narcotics trade. So by essentially every measure of a state, we are a failure.
But, that said, it is still good that the US is looking into a way to exit Afghanistan. The US cannot stay here forever. And now that the US sees that its time is running out here, is becoming more resolved about dealing with the issues that brought it here. Hence we see the increased pressure they are putting on the Taliban and Al Qaeda.
So that the US wants to leave Afghanistan sooner rather than later is good for all of us as long as they understand that before they leave, they have to make sure that Afghanistan is strong enough on its own that it won’t go back to being a terrorist haven as soon as the US leaves. Because if that happens, and they leave behind an unstable government, the world will see a far more unstable Afghanistan than it when the international community left last time.
Kabul Direct: What does the US need to do to fix Afghanistan’s security situation and political problems then?
Soltanzooi: First, the US needs to come up with a very clear set of objectives. Then it needs to make sure that these objectives are carried out in a clear, coordinated, and cohesive manner. To date, there have been far too many agendas competing here in Afghanistan – the agenda of the international community, the US military, the intelligence community, the NGOs, etc.
Then,on the other side, the US needs to start holding the Afghan government accountable. The US cannot let corrupt or incompetent Afghan officials undermine their plan. The Afghan government has to become a responsible partner.
The people of Afghanistan also have to be tasked with some of the responsibility. They need to participate more in the decision making, so they feel a sense of ownership. The need to shape public opinion has not been sufficiently addressed in Afghanistan. The Afghan and international media has hurt the US agenda by giving either too much credence to the Taliban’s side of the story. For example, the media undermines public confidence by focusing on the civilian casualties that NATO or the US military causes. The loss of civilian life that the Taliban causes with their suicide bombings or IEDs, on the other hand, is only mentioned in passing.
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