Consultative Jirga in Focus: Waheed Mujda Explains
President Karzai presented the idea of holding a national jirga at the London Conference earlier this year. The idea was welcomed by the United States, Britain, and other members of the international community and a jirga is scheduled to take place in Kabul, in traditional loya jirga tents on May 3rd. Some fifteen hundred participants from Afghanistan and the international community are expected to attend.
Jirgas have a long history in Afghanistan. Traditionally they are the venues where Afghans have always sorted out political, social, cultural and even economic problems. Typically they are attended by all of the community leaders, tribal chiefs, elders, and so on.
The Secretariat of the Jirga has indicated that the government is expecting members of parliament, cabinet ministers, governors, members of provincial councils, the Afghan Ulema Council, at least one tribal elder from each district, 20 women leaders, 30 representatives of the nomadic peoples, business and trading representatives, and the heads of various civil society organizations, political parties and refugee societies to attend this year’s jirga. Two hundred foreign diplomats are expected to participate as well. The Afghan government is to provide the funding for the Jirga.
The agenda is to include the following discussion items: 1- Consultation on what is required to reach a permanent
peace; 2- Design of an agreement as to the framework that would satisfy the opponents; 3- Design of a mechanism
that will work for the opponents; 4- National unity plan to determine the direction of the nation as a whole.
The Afghan government is holding the peace jirga at the same time the Americans are intensifying their military offensives in southern Afghanistan. The MOD, American forces and NATO-ISAF have all announced that after Marja, they intend to go to Kandaharnext. Given that anti-government insurgents have repeatedly stated that they reject the idea of peace at this time, will the jirga be enough of an enticement to bring the insurgents around to the idea of peaceful compromise? Many Afghans have expressed doubts, including Waheed Mujda, a former member of the Taliban and now a research fellow at Kabul Center for Strategic Studies.
Waheed Muzhda, who is a native of Baghlan Province, studied Economics at Kabul University. Mr. Mujda served as the Middle East Desk officer in the Taliban’s Foreign Ministry. Prior to joining the Taliban, he was a member of Hizb-e Islami. Mr. Muzhda is the author of Afghanistan and the Five-Year Reign of the Taliban. He often appears in the Afghan and international media.
Kabul Direct: What do you expect will happen in the upcoming Jirga? Are you hopeful that it will result in peace?
Mujda: Without support, the peace jirga will not lead anywhere.
Kabul Direct: Do you think it is paradoxical for the Afghan government to try and hold a peace initiative as the international forces plan major military offensives?
Mujda: Unfortunately, peace and war are always paradoxical, and the situation in Afghanistan is no different.
In a briefing presented to the Afghan parliament, Dr. Farooq Wardak said pointed out that though the Marja offensive had been planned long before the peace jirga, given the timing of the jirga, the international community needs to make sure that the Afghan president is in accord with the military schedule.
Now President Karzai is well aware of the jirga’s potential. So I hope that he will not allow the foreign forces to take away from the potential of the jirga by continuing with the offensives without his permission. My own advice would be to suggest that we give the jirga a chance – that we stop the war until after the jirga has convened.
The important issue is that the Afghan president thinks that the solution to the Afghanistan crisis is not to use a military approach. Americans pretend to agree with this mindset. However, the Obama administration has indicated that anti-insurgency efforts and military responses need to continue in order to drive home to the Taliban their relative strength. Americans believe that the Taliban will only join the political process if they feel like they are overwhelmed.
But I believe the Americans are wrong here. A weak Taliban will not have interest in sharing power. They will never feel as weak as they did in 2001, and even then they were so weak they opted out of vying for power.
The Americans would never agree to allow Hekmatyer to send his delegations to Kabul, but then only recently the Foreign Secretary agreed to let the Hizbe Islami delegation present their peace proposals.
If the foreign forces can beat the Taliban militarily, great; If they can’t, then we have to have these sorts of negotiations. President Karzai needs to make sure that all options are open.
Kabul Direct: Do you think the Americans are only playing with the Taliban?
Mujda: I think they have been trying to play with the Taliban for a long time now. They have also tried to have negotiations with the insurgents too. The UN Special Representative, Mr. Kai Aide talked with the Taliban as well.
These talks were all held privately; and Pakistan was kept out of the information loop. When Islamabad was informed about the discussions, they responded by arresting the Taliban leaders who engaged in the negotiations. What happened next was that the Americans demonstrated that they were right next to Pakistan with respect to the arrests. To me this signals that weakening the Taliban politically as well as militarily is the plan that America wants. In other words, I believe Taliban arrests that took place in Pakistan were done in close coordination with the Americans.
Kabul Direct: Recent developments seem to show that there are widening differences between President Karzai and the Americans and even Pakistanis. Do you believe that President Karzai is becoming increasingly isolated from his American sponsors? And if so, where will this lead with respect to the negotiations?
Mujda: I think Karzai will not b able to succeed without support of the international community. Karzai alone does not have the abilitythat even the Hizb-e Islami does – to propose, for example, fifteen articles and conditions under which they could agree to peace, to come up with a timetable for the withdrawal of foreign forces; a program to release political prisoners and close the prisons.
Alone, President Karzai is incapable of coming upwith solutions to do any of this. With the internationals, PresidentKarzai can’t do the job. At the same time, the peace jirga will not achieve anything productive without international support.
That said, I do think the Americans are now eager to come up with some kind of arrangement that will lead to peace and stability. I think a framework will therefore be defined in this conference. I think they will, for instance, come up with a timetable for foreign forces to withdraw from Afghanistan. Some members are talking about six months; others think a year is more practicable.
Kabul Direct: What do you think of President Karzai’s broader policies in Afghanistan?
Mujda: Well our next issue in my mind is constitutional reform. In the jirga they should also discuss the weaknesses inherent in our constitution. For example we need to determine which if any of the articles contradict Sharia and then decide what to do about them.
This jirga may not be the place to achieve an understanding between the government and the armed insurgents or opposition. But it could be the venue in which to determine how to reconcile the various points of view that aren’t being fought on the battlefield.
Days ago, for example, I participated in a meeting where many of the participants were hostile toward the idea of this upcoming jirga. They claim that it is unconstitutional to host such a meeting and they blamed President Karzai for wasting everyone’s time. They said he should be focusing his efforts on reducing corruption not fantasizing about peace. Some even went so far as to suggest that maybe Karzai was using the jirga to strengthen his hold on power.
I don’t know what the real story is but I do think we need to welcome all the peace initiatives we can. A jirga could in the end, open dialogues with some of the different actors we need to be talking to.
Kabul Direct: If, as has been announced, there will not be any representatives from the Taliban or the other anti-government forces, how far can this jirga really go?
Mujda: Well, it won’t necessarily be able to come up with a framework that will satisfy the Taliban obviously, but we still have a long way to go to get an agreement between parties and communities that are willing to live in peace with each other. So there is a lot of work to be done in getting to the red lines, as I call them, the lines which if crossed will destroy the whole national unity process anyway.
Kabul Direct: Shouldn’t the National Reconciliation Law that was approved by the State have defined the framework? How will what the jirga comes up with be any more workable?
Mujda: The problem with the National Reconciliation Law is that it doesn’t clarify exactly when foreign forces will withdraw, or how and what to change with respect to the constitution. The law is also silent on other important issues as well – like the closure of foreign prisons in Afghanistan. These are the items that are on the agenda for the upcoming Jirga.
Kabul Direct: So will thegovernment then proceed to put into effect any mechanism that gets drawn up in the peace Jirga?
Mujda: Well, as I said, that depends ultimately on the capability of the Afghan government. And don’t forget, President Karzai has his own political agenda with respect to the jirga.
It is said that he will gather some 1500 people together in the jirga who he can count on to deliver to the international community the message that he would like them to hear – that is the will of the Afghan people to see the withdrawal of the foreign troops.
President Karzai, they say, will use the jirga to bolster his position versus the American agenda in Afghanistan.
Kabul Direct: What do Afghans expect to get out of this jirga?
Mugda: Well, there are a lot of view points here in Afghanistan, as I mentioned. Some Afghans want the Western model of democracy. Others want to continue using Afghan traditions. For some, the main issue is the lack of human rights – what the limitations should be on, say, speech or expression. With all the viewpoints here, the jirga won’t most likely achieve a unanimous position on any of the issues under discussion.
Ending the war, however, does seem to be the one goal that all participants share.
Kabul Direct: Are you saying you are doubtful that the jirga will arrive at a general consensus?
Mugda: It is unlikely but not impossible. No one wants war to continue in Afghanistan. This means there is a great incentive to come up with something that will appease the insurgents.
Kabul Direct: Over the past few years we have often heard President Karzai asking the Taliban to stop their war against Afghanistan. But the government has never been willing to meet their pre-conditions – and vice versa. How do we get around the pre-conditions this time?
Mujda: Let me answer by way of example. When the Hizbe Islami-led delegation first began negotiating, their pre-conditation was that the foreign forces had to leave Afghanistan within six months; and that the various constitutions being proposed should be compared side by side and then a vote taken on which one was the best one for Afghanistan. But after speaking to other Afghan parties, Hizbe Islami determined that Afghans were too concerned
about what would happen if the foreign forces left before a real stability had been achieved and so they backed off on this particular pre-condition.
So, you see, in this case, the negotiations were productive. They enabled the two sides to understand the others’ point of view. Hizbe Islami surprised everyone with how flexible they were willing to be.
Kabul Direct: From what I’ve heard, Hizb-e Islami might be ready to compromise but is this true of the Taliban as well? They still seem to have a lot of foreign support. Are they really sufficiently weak in your view to want to give up their fight?
Mujda: Actually the preconditions Hizb-e Islami had are very similar to the Taliban’s pre-conditions from what I have been able to gather. My contacts in Hizb-e Islami tell me that they speak to the Taliban and that the Taliban wants what they want – namely, the withdrawal of the foreign forces.
My friends tell me that they doubt the Americans will ever leave Afghanistan. But if they do leave the problem of the insurgency will be solved, they say. Hizb-e Islami has committed to not fighting the Taliban if this happens. And if they
are true to their word, the nation won’t descend into war after the foreigners leave.
As for now, the Taliban’s problem is that as far as they are concerned, Afghanistan is under foreign occupation. The Taliban do not trust America when it comes to Afghanistan.
I am told that if the Hizb-e Islami proposal is acceptable to both the government and the international
community, then the Taliban will agree to peace as well. They do not see any need for the mujahideen to go to war this time after the American forces leave Afghanistan.
So the situation should get better.
Kabul Direct: Are you still in touch with the Taliban here in Afghanistan? What about in Pakistan?
Mujda: I believe that speculation that the Taliban are only doing Pakistan’s bidding is wrong. I have always been skeptical of these allegations.
Pakistani forces have captured Taliban and sent them to Guantanamo after all. So I doubt the Taliban trusts Pakistan after all this – or any other country for that matter.
The Taliban cherishes its independence. This is why they refrained from participating in Pakistan’s tribal wars, for example. They also did not interfere in the decision of who should replace Baitullah Massoud.
Mullah Omer, who knows Taliban on both sides of the Durand Line, has banned the Taliban in Afghanistan from advancing Al Qaeda’s agenda. At the same time he is trying to reduce their dependence on Pakistan.
That said, Pakistan is still important to the Afghan Taliban. Where else are they going to get their injured fighters treated or get them access to basic health services? If Pakistan stopped treating the Taliban, the Taliban would be
unable to continue their war in Afghanistan.
Kabul Direct: Are we getting close to achieving stable peace in Afghanistan?
Mujda: First the Americans will have to conclude that Afghanistan’s problems are in the end one ethnecity’s problems. If the that tribe is unhappy then there will not be peace. While the other ethnicities in Afghanistan do not think it is fair that their interests should be subordinate to one ethnecity’s interests, the Americans are trying to use the traditional power structures as they did in Iraq. In Afghanistan they want to replicate their success in Iraq by enlisting the tribes.
Kabul Direct: Will this work? If not, what is the solution?
Mujda: Well, after three decades of war, what do we have? A defeated empire – the Soviet Union; and after nine years, NATO is still unable to stabilize the country. So this seems to be the nature of Afghanistan.
Until and unless we see the political will to stabilize Afghanistan,internationally as well as domestically, we won’t see peace. We need a lot of players who are willing to do what it will take to bring security to this country.
COPYRIGHT KABUL DIRECT 2010
One Comments